Disney Volatility Analysis
This project not only helped me practice real-world data preprocessing, feature engineering, and visualization, but also gave me experience in evaluating classification models — especially understanding how class imbalance can affect performance and how tools like SMOTE can help.
Daily Returns Plot
This graph displays the daily percentage change in Disney’s stock price over the course of one year (2022). It gives a visual sense of how volatile the stock was on a day-to-day basis.
The more jagged and wide the spikes (both upward and downward), the more volatile the stock is. This gives a good initial idea of the stock’s behavior during the year.
Rolling Volatility Plot
This graph shows the 30-day rolling standard deviation of daily returns, which smooths out short-term fluctuations and highlights longer-term trends in volatility.
When the line spikes, it indicates a period of higher uncertainty or news impact, while dips show more stable periods. For example, a sharp increase toward the end suggests increased volatility in late 2022.